Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 · Genoa vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Genoa win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Genoa45%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Fiorentina32%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Nov 3 · at Sassuolo (A)2-1
- Oct 29 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Oct 26 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Oct 19 · v Parma (H)0-0
- Oct 5 · at Napoli (A)1-2
Fiorentina
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Nov 6 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v Lecce (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Bologna (H)2-2
- Oct 23 · at SK Rapid (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.