Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 29 · 14:00 · Genoa vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Genoa win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 45%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa52%45%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−5
OursMarket
Hellas Verona22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 55% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 66% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Nov 22 · at Cagliari (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · at Sassuolo (A)2-1
- Oct 29 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
- Oct 26 · at Torino (A)1-2
Hellas Verona
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 23 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Nov 8 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Oct 29 · at Como (A)1-3
- Oct 26 · v Cagliari (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.