Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 14 · 17:00 · Genoa vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 54%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa22%16%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Inter54%61%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 39% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 84% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 20% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 8 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Cagliari (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
Inter
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 9 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Como (H)4-0
- Dec 3 · v Venezia (H)5-1
- Nov 30 · at Pisa (A)2-0
- Nov 26 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.