Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Mar 14 · 19:45 · Genoa vs Lecce
Likeliest: Genoa win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Genoa57%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Lecce16%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Mar 7 · at Cagliari (A)1-1
- Mar 2 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Feb 17 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Feb 8 · at Torino (A)1-1
Lecce
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 8 · v Milan (H)2-3
- Feb 28 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Udinese (H)0-1
- Feb 16 · at Monza (A)0-0
- Feb 9 · v Bologna (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.