Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 7 · 17:00 · Genoa vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 41%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa34%22%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−5
OursMarket
Napoli41%48%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 36% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 43% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 78% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 32% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Jan 30 · at Lazio (A)2-3
- Jan 25 · v Bologna (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Parma (A)0-0
- Jan 12 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Jan 8 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
Napoli
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Jan 31 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- Jan 25 · at Juventus (A)0-3
- Jan 20 · at FC København (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.