Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:45 · Genoa vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 38%
A 36% home win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa36%19%+16
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−2
OursMarket
Napoli38%52%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 27% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 16 · v Ascoli (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Lecce (A)0-1
- May 17 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
Napoli
WinDrawLossWinWin
- May 24 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- May 11 · v Bologna (H)2-3
- May 2 · at Como (A)0-0
- Apr 24 · v Cremonese (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.