Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 3 · 14:00 · Genoa vs Pisa
Likeliest: Genoa win · 54%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa54%48%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%31%−10
OursMarket
Pisa25%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 37% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 43% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 69% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 29 · at Roma (A)1-3
- Dec 21 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Dec 8 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
Pisa
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Dec 27 · v Juventus (H)0-2
- Dec 21 · at Cagliari (A)2-2
- Dec 12 · at Lecce (A)0-1
- Dec 8 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Inter (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.