Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 8 · 17:00 · Genoa vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 43%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa32%22%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Roma43%49%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 40% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 78% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 31% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 28 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Torino (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Napoli (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Lazio (A)2-3
Roma
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Mar 1 · v Juventus (H)3-3
- Feb 22 · v Cremonese (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Napoli (A)2-2
- Feb 9 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Feb 2 · at Udinese (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.