Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 22 · 11:30 · Genoa vs Torino
Likeliest: Genoa win · 46%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa46%42%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−7
OursMarket
Torino29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 15 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Napoli (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Lazio (A)2-3
- Jan 25 · v Bologna (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Parma (A)0-0
Torino
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Feb 15 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Fiorentina (A)2-2
- Feb 4 · at Inter (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Como (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.