Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Mar 20 · 19:45 · Genoa vs Udinese
Likeliest: Genoa win · 47%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa47%43%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Udinese26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 38% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 45% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 62% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Mar 15 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Torino (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
Udinese
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Atalanta (A)2-2
- Mar 2 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Feb 23 · at Bologna (A)0-1
- Feb 15 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.