La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 5 · 12:00 · Getafe vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 36%
We make it 44% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe35%31%+4
OursMarket
Draw29%34%−4
OursMarket
Athletic Club36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 31% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 66% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 47% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Real Betis (H)2-0
- Mar 2 · at Real Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
Athletic Club
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 2 · at Criciúma (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v Ponte Preta (H)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
- Mar 18 · at Sport Recife (A)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Girona (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.