La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 23 · 17:30 · Getafe vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Getafe win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 18%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe41%18%+23
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid35%55%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 37% | +24 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 45% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 82% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 25% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 9 · at Mallorca (A)0-1
- Oct 31 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Oct 28 · at Inter de Valdemoro (A)11-0
- Oct 25 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- Oct 19 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
Atlético Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 8 · v Levante (H)3-1
- Nov 4 · v Union Saint-Gilloise (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · v Sevilla (H)3-0
- Oct 27 · at Real Betis (A)2-0
- Oct 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.