La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Sep 7 · 17:00 · Getafe vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Getafe win · 45%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe45%39%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−8
OursMarket
Celta Vigo29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 31% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 59% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 31 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · at FK Partizan (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v FK Partizan (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-3
Celta Vigo
DrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 3 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Valencia (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 30% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.