La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 13 · 16:30 · Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Getafe win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw37%34%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 7 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · at FK Partizan (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v FK Partizan (H)3-1
Deportivo La Coruña
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 5 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Valencia (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Aug 17 · v Elche (H)1-1
- May 31 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.