La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Nov 28 · 20:00 · Getafe vs Elche
Likeliest: Elche win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe34%42%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Elche40%25%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 33% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 75% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 63% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 23 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Mallorca (A)0-1
- Oct 31 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Oct 28 · at Inter de Valdemoro (A)11-0
- Oct 25 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
Elche
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Nov 23 · v Real Madrid (H)2-2
- Nov 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Los Garres (A)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.