La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 13 · 20:00 · Getafe vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Getafe win · 51%
We make it 45% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe51%36%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%34%−8
OursMarket
Espanyol23%30%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 29% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 64% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 66% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 55% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 6 · at Villarreal (A)0-2
- Nov 28 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Mallorca (A)0-1
- Oct 31 · v Girona (H)2-1
Espanyol
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Atlético Baleares (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-0
- Nov 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.