La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:15 · Getafe vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 55%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe22%18%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Barcelona55%57%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 24% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossWinWinLossWin
- Apr 22 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Levante (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
FC Barcelona
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Apr 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.