La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Getafe vs Málaga
Likeliest: Getafe win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe43%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+2
OursMarket
Málaga23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 35% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · at FK Partizan (A)1-2
Málaga
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 17 · v Villarreal (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
- Aug 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.