La Liga (Spain) · Wed, May 13 · 19:30 · Getafe vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Getafe win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe44%41%+3
OursMarket
Draw30%32%−2
OursMarket
Mallorca26%27%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 60% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossWinLossLossDraw
- May 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Apr 22 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Levante (A)0-1
Mallorca
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- May 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Girona (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.