La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Getafe vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Getafe win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 39%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe47%39%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%34%−8
OursMarket
Osasuna27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 66% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 59% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- May 17 · at Elche (A)0-1
- May 13 · v Mallorca (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
Osasuna
WinLossLossLossLoss
- May 17 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- May 12 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Levante (A)2-3
- May 2 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.