La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 23 · 17:30 · Getafe vs Racing de Santander
Likeliest: Getafe win · 42%
A 32% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Racing de Santander32%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 34% | +21 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 65% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 20 · v FK Partizan (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-3
- May 23 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Elche (A)0-1
- May 13 · v Mallorca (H)3-1
Racing de Santander
DrawWinDraw
- Aug 16 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- May 31 · v Cádiz (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Racing de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | — |
| Both teams scored | 20% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.