La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 3 · 14:15 · Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Getafe win · 47%
We make it 41% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe47%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano26%21%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 70% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Apr 22 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Levante (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 30 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-3
- Apr 23 · v Espanyol (H)1-0
- Apr 16 · at AEK Athens (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.