La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Oct 19 · 19:00 · Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe29%32%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 15 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Barcelona (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Málaga (H)1-0
- Sep 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Racing de Santander (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Barcelona (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.