La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 8 · 15:15 · Getafe vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Getafe win · 38%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe38%33%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−6
OursMarket
Real Betis35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 35% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 50% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Mar 2 · at Real Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Villarreal (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
Real Betis
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Mar 1 · v Sevilla (H)2-2
- Feb 21 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.