La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Jan 9 · 20:00 · Getafe vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Getafe win · 41%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe41%28%+13
OursMarket
Draw27%33%−6
OursMarket
Real Sociedad33%39%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 30% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 39% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 72% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 42% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jan 2 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · at Burgos (A)1-3
- Dec 13 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Villarreal (A)0-2
Real Sociedad
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Eldense (A)2-1
- Dec 12 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.