La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 22 · 13:00 · Getafe vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Getafe win · 44%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe44%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Sevilla31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 32% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Feb 14 · v Villarreal (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
- Jan 26 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Jan 18 · v Valencia (H)0-1
Sevilla
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 14 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-4
- Jan 24 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
- Jan 19 · at Elche (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.