La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:15 · Getafe vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Getafe win · 49%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Getafe49%29%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Villarreal28%41%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 39% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 59% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 71% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 42% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Getafe
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Feb 8 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
- Jan 26 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Jan 18 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Jan 9 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-2
Villarreal
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 9 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Jan 31 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Jan 20 · v Ajax (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Getafe | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.