Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 16:00 · Ghana vs Gambia
Likeliest: draw · 41%
A 41% draw. The market says 23%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ghana26%62%−36
OursMarket
Draw41%23%+18
OursMarket
Gambia32%15%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 48% | −18 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 48% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 85% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 38% | +36 |
| Double chance 12 | 59% | 77% | −18 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 81% | −36 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ghana
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 24 · at Côte d'Ivoire (A)0-2
- Jul 4 · at Colombia (A)0-1
- Jun 27 · at Croatia (A)1-2
- Jun 23 · at England (A)0-0
- Jun 17 · v Panama (H)1-0
Gambia
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Somalia (H)0-0
- May 29 · at Iran (A)1-3
- Mar 31 · at Senegal (A)1-3
- Nov 18 · at Kuwait (A)2-2
- Jun 9 · at Uganda (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ghana | Gambia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.