Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 11:00 · GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile SK
Likeliest: Ljungskile SK win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GIF Sundsvall23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Ljungskile SK51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GIF Sundsvall
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · at Landskrona (A)0-4
- Sep 10 · v Örebro (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at IK Brage (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Norrby IF (H)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Östers IF (A)0-1
Ljungskile SK
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Norrby IF (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Norrköping (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Värnamo (H)0-1
- Aug 24 · at Östersunds FK (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | GIF Sundsvall | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-5 | 2-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.