Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · GIF Sundsvall vs Värnamo
Likeliest: Värnamo win · 47%
A 29% draw. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GIF Sundsvall24%25%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
Värnamo47%50%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 33% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GIF Sundsvall
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 13 · at Norrköping (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v Ljungskile SK (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · at Landskrona (A)0-4
- Sep 10 · v Örebro (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at IK Brage (A)1-0
Värnamo
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at IK Oddevold (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Östers IF (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · at United IK Nordic (A)4-2
- Sep 5 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | GIF Sundsvall | Värnamo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.