Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Gil Vicente vs FC Porto
Likeliest: FC Porto win · 70%
Likely score: 0–1
A 70% away win. The market says 66%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gil Vicente8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Porto70%66%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 16% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gil Vicente
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 19 · at Sporting Braga (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · at UD Santarém (A)2-2
- Oct 9 · at Moreirense (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Marítimo (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Benfica (A)1-3
FC Porto
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Real Betis (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Marítimo (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Benfica (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Casa Pia (A)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Gil Vicente | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.