Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Gillingham vs Cambridge United
Likeliest: Cambridge United win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gillingham32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Cambridge United40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gillingham
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Rochdale (A)4-1
- Sep 1 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Northampton Town (H)1-1
Cambridge United
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Reading (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Bradford City (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Gillingham | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-8-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.