EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Gillingham vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 48%
A 28% home win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gillingham28%20%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Luton Town48%55%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 27% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gillingham
DrawLossLossLossWin
- May 2 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Barnet (A)2-6
- Apr 18 · v Grimsby Town (H)1-4
- Apr 14 · at Cheltenham Town (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Salford City (A)0-0
Luton Town
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 2 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Rotherham United (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-2
- Apr 15 · v Northampton Town (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Gillingham | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.