League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · Gillingham vs Port Vale
Likeliest: Port Vale win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gillingham29%32%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+3
OursMarket
Port Vale40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gillingham
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Accrington Stanley (A)1-3
- Oct 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion U21 (H)4-3
- Oct 10 · at Rotherham United (A)4-1
- Oct 3 · v Newport County (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at York City (A)0-3
Port Vale
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Chesterfield (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Grimsby Town (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.