K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimcheon Sangmu FC25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Daejeon Hana Citizen47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at FC Seoul (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Anyang (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gangwon FC (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Pohang Steelers (A)0-0
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Gwangju FC (H)3-2
- Oct 13 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-1 | 2-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.