K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 10 · 07:30 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
Likeliest: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimcheon Sangmu FC51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Anyang23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gangwon FC (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Pohang Steelers (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-3
FC Anyang
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Ulsan HD (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Gangwon FC (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | FC Anyang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-0 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.