K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 13 · 07:30 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC
Likeliest: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimcheon Sangmu FC36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Gangwon FC33%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 9 · at Pohang Steelers (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Jeju SK (A)0-0
Gangwon FC
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Anyang (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v Pohang Steelers (H)0-0
- Aug 26 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-0 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.