K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 10 · 07:30 · Gimhae City FC vs Chungnam Asan FC
Likeliest: Chungnam Asan FC win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimhae City FC24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Chungnam Asan FC48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimhae City FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Busan I Park (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Jeonnam Dragons (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Yongin City FC (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Suwon FC (A)0-2
Chungnam Asan FC
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Cheonan City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Cheongju FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Daegu FC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Gimhae City FC | Chungnam Asan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-4 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.