K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 · Gimhae City FC vs Paju Citizen FC
Likeliest: Paju Citizen FC win · 35%
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimhae City FC34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Paju Citizen FC35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimhae City FC
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Busan I Park (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Jeonnam Dragons (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Yongin City FC (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Suwon FC (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)1-1
Paju Citizen FC
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 4 · v Daegu FC (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Seongnam FC (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Suwon FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Gimhae City FC | Paju Citizen FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.