Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atlanta
Likeliest: Gimnasia Jujuy win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimnasia Jujuy52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Atlanta20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimnasia Jujuy
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Nueva Chicago (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Temperley (A)1-2
- Sep 28 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)1-1
Atlanta
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Gimnasia Jujuy | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-1 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.