Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 18:00 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve vs Godoy Cruz Reserve
Likeliest: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve win · 44%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Godoy Cruz Reserve27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · v Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (H)1-1
- Oct 1 · at Barracas Central Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 24 · at Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at Banfield Reserve (A)2-1
Godoy Cruz Reserve
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 8 · v Barracas Central Reserve (H)0-0
- Oct 1 · at Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 25 · at San Martin Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Banfield Reserve (H)3-0
- Sep 10 · at Rosario Central Reserve (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve | Godoy Cruz Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.