Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 12 · 21:30 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Likeliest: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Newell's Old Boys26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at CA Independiente (A)3-0
Newell's Old Boys
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 3 · v Lanús (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Platense (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Rosario Central (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.