Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Fri, Oct 23 · 21:30 · Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Platense
Likeliest: draw · 35%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the draw. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza34%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Platense32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)1-0
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-2
Platense
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Lanús (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)1-1
- Oct 5 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)2-2
- Oct 2 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.