Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta vs Atlanta
Likeliest: Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Atlanta25%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 41% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Atlanta (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Gimnasia Jujuy (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at San Martín de Tucumán (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Agropecuario Argentino (A)0-1
Atlanta
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.