K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 · Gimpo FC vs Busan I Park
Likeliest: Gimpo FC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimpo FC38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Busan I Park33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimpo FC
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)1-4
- Aug 16 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-1
- Aug 7 · v Cheongju FC (H)3-0
Busan I Park
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Suwon FC (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Daegu FC (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Hwaseong FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Gimpo FC | Busan I Park |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-3 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.