K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Gimpo FC vs Gimhae City FC
Likeliest: Gimpo FC win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimpo FC53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Gimhae City FC21%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimpo FC
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Busan I Park (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-2
Gimhae City FC
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)2-6
- Oct 10 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Busan I Park (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Jeonnam Dragons (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Gimpo FC | Gimhae City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.