K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 07:30 · Gimpo FC vs Paju Citizen FC
Likeliest: Gimpo FC win · 46%
A 31% draw. The market says 26%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gimpo FC46%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw31%26%+5
OursMarket
Paju Citizen FC23%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 74% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gimpo FC
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Busan I Park (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)1-4
Paju Citizen FC
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Busan I Park (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Daegu FC (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Gimpo FC | Paju Citizen FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.