La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Girona FC vs Celta Vigo B
Likeliest: Girona FC win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona FC72%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Celta Vigo B10%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona FC
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v FC Andorra (H)2-0
- Oct 12 · at CD Tenerife (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Albacete Balompié (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
Celta Vigo B
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Real Sociedad B (H)4-1
- Oct 4 · at Sporting Gijón (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v CE Sabadell (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Almería (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Girona FC | Celta Vigo B |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.