La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · Girona FC vs FC Andorra
Likeliest: Girona FC win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona FC52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC Andorra24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona FC
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 12 · at CD Tenerife (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Albacete Balompié (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v CD Castellón (H)1-2
FC Andorra
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v CD Castellón (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at CE Sabadell (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Granada (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Real Sociedad B (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Girona FC | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.