La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 29 · 19:30 · Girona FC vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Girona FC win · 48%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona FC48%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Las Palmas25%19%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 75% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona FC
DrawLoss
- Aug 21 · at Córdoba (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Leganés (H)1-1
Las Palmas
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 22 · at AD Ceuta (A)2-0
- Aug 16 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-1
- Jun 10 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Málaga (H)0-1
- May 31 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Girona FC | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.